Mark Leiter Jr., the Unintentional Opener
The Cubs started the season knowing only four pitchers on their roster could be slotted into the starting rotation due to the injuries to Alec Mills, Wade Miley, and Adbert Alzolay. Without those three arms, the Cubs don’t have a lot of stretched-out pitching depth capable of throwing 4.0+ innings. Two early off-days worked in the Cubs’ favor in getting their starters additional rest, so the Cubs were able to complete nearly two full rotations of Hendricks, Steele, Stroman, and Smyly before needing a fifth starter for their April 16th matchup against the Rockies. To fill that fifth starter role, the Cubs recalled thirty-one-year-old right-hander Mark Leiter, Jr. from AAA Iowa.
When the Cubs recalled him from AAA, the idea (or hope) was that he could eat up some innings every fifth day to avoid overtaxing the bullpen after a shortened spring training where a lot of pitchers didn’t have enough time stretch out their durability. Even with expanded rosters of twenty-eight players in April, the Cubs have been relying on their bullpen pretty heavily and are currently carrying fifteen pitchers to spread out the workload (that number will have to drop to fourteen by May 2 and thirteen by May 30). Leiter has thrown 3.1, 4.0, and 2.0 innings in each of his first three starts with the Cubs. "Deep" is not a word we could use to describe any of his three starts, even relative to the short starts we’re seeing from a lot pitchers around MLB. So where do the Cubs go from here with Leiter? It’s pretty clear he’s not the innings-eater the Cubs had planned.
Generally, pitchers’ effectiveness decreases with each time they go through the batting order. Pitchers are most effective the first time through the order, experience a slight decrease the second time through the order after each hitter has faced them once, and pitchers often pay a steeper penalty if they face a hitter a third time. Through Leiter’s first three starts, his splits are dramatically different for the first time through the order vs. the second time through the order. Through Leiter’s three starts in 2022:
TTOIPERAFIPK%WHIPBAAwOBAHard Hit %First6.10.003.0722.2%1.11.174.25311.8%Second3.024.0014.075.9%3.00.462.63646.2%
Clearly hitters are figuring out Leiter after seeing him once. His K% plummets while batting average against, wOBA, and hard-hit percentage all skyrocket. In this albeit small sample size of three starts, Leiter is effective through approximately two innings but once the lineup turns over, he struggles. So why not try him as an Opener? If he can give the Cubs somewhere between 2.0-3.0 low leverage innings before turning the game over to the bullpen, I think you take that. Granted, using Leiter in an Opener role is a more of a consolation prize for a player you hoped could take up innings while the Cubs wait for Mills, Miley, and Alzolay to return. But it’s a better alternative than expecting 3.0-4.0 innings where he’s struggled toward the end of his outing and given up runs or left a messy situation for the reliever following him. He’s essentially been used as an overextended opener so far anyway, but without the added benefit of being able to plan the bullpen usage after him in advance. In his current usage, Ross is seeing how many innings Leiter can give him and then having to patch together the remaining innings playing from behind because Leiter couldn’t prevent runs when facing the lineup a second time.
The other benefit of limiting his innings as an Opener is that he could pitch more frequently than every fifth day because you’re not asking for a starter’s workload out of him. So far in 2022, Leiter is showing he’s able to get left-handed hitters out a little bit better than right-handed hitters (reverse splits). On days where Leiter isn’t being used as the Opener, he could be implemented as a middle reliever against left-handed-heavy lineups which the Cubs would be more likely to face on days when Kyle Hendricks or Marcus Stroman start (since both are RHP).
HitterAVGOBPSLGwOBALeft-handed.222.348.444.351Right-handed.333.455.611.466
The Cubs have three scheduled off days in the next two weeks. That gives Ross the flexibility to work with a four-man starting rotation in the short-term. I expect we’ll see Leiter used out of the bullpen during that stretch and Ross already showed his willingness to use him in relief. On April 29 in Milwaukee, Leiter pitched a scoreless inning with three strikeouts.
https://twitter.com/TonyAndracki23/status/1520225284225740804?s=20&t=ctFsO3hqd01UVgDeUxHNDA
Facing hitters no more than once per game may be key to Leiter’s success and Ross can be creative in how he makes that happen. Ross has been aggressive in playing matchups on the offensive side with his lineup and putting his hitters in positions where they’re more likely to succeed. He can do the same with Leiter by giving him a new role on the pitching staff.